WASHINGTON, April 28, 2026—Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group's latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook report said that the overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.

The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development, the analysis indicates, it said.

It said that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day.

It noted that Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel in 2026 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover.

T.R.