By: Jamil Dababat

According to scientific calculations, 15 million years from now the houses of Hebron will be overlooking the red sea, if the universe is destined to remain.

But here, on this land, located in the desert outskirts, calmness overtakes a seismically active area.

However, the earth core is moving; over the last few months, tens of earthquakes have struck the area with shock waves reaching the furthest northern point of the West Bank.

A dreadful sound was heard in Nablus; a light earthquake struck the ancient city that overlooks the Jordan Rift Valley, where the tectonic plates in the earth's crust move like teeth chattering. During the end of February, a tremor was felt in the northern West Bank and parts of southern Lebanon when a light earthquake struck the area.

'This was caused by the silent movement of the tectonic plates in the earth's core toward the southeast.' said Jalal Dabbeek, the Director of the Earth Sciences and Seismic Engineering Center (ESSEC) at An-Najah University.

An-Najah University is one of the universities equipped with specialized scientific centers.

 “There is a relative transform plate movement towards the south, causing Palestine to drift away from Jordan five to seven Millimeters each year.”

Why was the Dead Sea, which is situated tens of kilometers to the east,  the epicenter of earthquakes over the previous months?.  'Because the dead sea is situated in the Jordan Rift Valley; a seismic zone with active faults.'

The Palestinian people are preoccupied with countless political and economic issues but occasionally find themselves following up with earthquakes' news.

This time the Palestinian people are not preoccupied with political or economic disturbances nor with the rising taxes or customs, but rather the 'Earth core disturbances.' ...It is the movement inside a moving earth core with an earth surface unprepared to handle the consequences of a major earthquake that is believed to occur at any time.

The last earthquake struck the area three days ago; it registered a magnitude of 3.3 on the Richter scale. The Middle East owns a history full of earthquakes...not only 'political-quakes.'

After a visit to the Center Earth Sciences and Seismic Engineering Center (ESSEC) to examine the details of the last earthquake that struck the area, Dabbeek said that the earth crust in the Dead Sea is relatively thin.

The alluring gray mountains surrounding the Dead Sea from the West and East and the state of absolute silence engulfing the area at the early morning hours, do not suggest that this is a seismic zone. However, those who play sports at the shores of the Dead Sea may feel the movement of the muddy earth under their feet.

Dabbeek added: “It is normal for earthquakes to strike the area; the ongoing seismic activity hasn't stopped for thousands of years.”

Some ancient stories relate that the Dead Sea was formed as a result of earth faults; when an earthquake hit the area, earth rifts formed the deep hole of the Dead Sea.

According to measurements taken by the seismic monitoring equipment in the Al-Najah University, the earthquake occurred about 15 kilometers to the southeast of Jericho and about 15 kilometers deep, which is believed to be the center of this universe.

'Here, everything is calm. And today, the salty sea has nothing to do with natural disasters...nothing here but calmness.'

'At any given moment we could witness a seismic activity in the western edge of the Arabian plate, the Jordan Rift Valley,” said Dabbeek, who prefers to speak calmly about a possible destructive earthquake in the future.

“It could happen, nothing is predictable. Still, there should be signals. The possibility of an earthquake is bound to several factors, such as earthquakes' history and activity,” he said.

The sequences of earthquakes in the Middle East indicate to a recurring relatively strong earthquake. Palestine is a geographic and political earthquake-prone area.

As other similar incidents in the historical agenda of countries long-gone, neighborhoods have also vanished because of earthquakes.

Dabbeek presented an archive of earthquakes that took place in Palestine and the region where he highlighted most important incidents that took place in the following years:

In 1068, 1202, 1339, 1402, 1546, 1656, 1666, 1759, 1834, 1837, 1854, 1859, 1872, 1837, 1896, 1900, 1903, 1923, 1927, 1954 and in 1995

'These earthquakes had the most effect on the cities that were closest to the epicenter where the earthquake originated, he said.'But, what about Jericho? The oldest city in history located in the center hot depth which is moving southward.

“Throughout history, Jericho was struck with several earthquakes, of which one earthquake caused its destruction and the collapse of its impenetrable wall in the year 3000 B.C.

'The occurrence of an earthquake in the area is not a shock; it is natural considering Jericho's location.'

Throughout the past years, several minor earthquakes occurred and were barely felt by Palestinians and other Middle East countries.

But what about a potential earthquake that could occur at any moment in a land ready for earthquakes, given the nature and location of the land?

“We are talking about a strong earthquake, registering six or seven degrees on the Richter scale, if happens, the damage will be severe despite the fact that this degree is not considered high by international rates, yet, the problem lies in our readiness for such incident,” said Dabbeek.

“We are not prepared for a major earthquake; Palestine has a limited-capability to face such disasters.” he added.

 However, Palestine has practically gone a long way in adapting to new laws on earthquake-resistant construction regulations.

Dabbeek said that 'the year 2014 will witness a shift toward that cause...We have started and will reinforce working toward establishing safe cities.

Primary and detailed scientific research indicate that some cities in Palestine will lose about 25% of its structures which could rise up to 33% if the area was hit by  an earthquake that registers at six to seven degrees on a Richter scale.

Palestine is not the only country that would suffer if a major earthquake hits; the Levantine countries would also suffer great losses.

Through the Center of Earth Sciences, Palestine is working on 'Project SASPARM  European FP7 Program) which is implemented by a number of international institutions for Disaster Risk Reduction.

“The project aims to improve municipalities' capability in implementing some of the ten basic requirements for safe cities that can face disasters,” added Dabbeek.

Here in the vicinity of the Dead Sea, the lowest point on earth beneath the sea level, nothing can be predicted beside the high temperature in mid September, whereas in Nablus, the Earth Sciences Center, located at 800 meters above sea level, detects and records waves by seismographic instruments. Richter Scale has recorded a long series of numbers of earthquakes that took place almost on daily basis across the world.

Meanwhile, to the north of the Dead Sea lies the Seismic Monitoring Station, in the village of Ouja, where vital information gets transferred to the Earth Sciences Center, headed by Dabbeek.

The center monitors dozens of minor earthquakes, some of which were felt by residents of the West Bank cities while the rest appeared to have occurred too deep underground.

Social networking websites were lit up with rumors and predictions...unaware that any earthquake hitting a country that has neither open borders nor an airport or an army, could be very costly.

“Palestine will lose a lot due to its situation, and 'this is not said to unnerve you,” said Dabbeek, who is traveling across the Palestinian cities to spread awareness and hold talks on the need for safe buildings that can resist an earthquake which no one can tell whether it will happen or not,  and when.' he concluded.

M.N. / K.F. / T.R