The poll, conducted by the Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) covered the areas of the Peace Process, Role of the US Government, Evaluation of Living Conditions and Institutions, Elections and Reconciliation.

About 68% of the respondents agreed (or somewhat agreed) that the negotiations have failed and that the peace process is at a deadlock, yet, after 18 years of negotiations, a majority felt that Palestinians are now farther from achieving their goal of establishing a Palestinian state. Still, 28% said that they are more hopeful in the peace process now than one year ago.

The most trusted party in its commitment to the peace process is the Palestinian National Authority (PA)/Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), where two-thirds of the respondents said that it is serious about its commitment to ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. In contrast, 28% said that the PA/PLO is not committed. As much as 64% said that Hamas is not committed to ending the occupation and establishing a state. A whole 94% said that Israel is not committed, and 87% said that the U.S. is not committed.

One quarter of the respondents believe that the American government is a neutral party in the negotiations, as about 83% have no faith that the American government will ever assist the Palestinians to end occupation and build their state.

About 21% believe the Obama administration is capable of helping the Palestinians end the occupation

In addition, the credibility of actions of the Israeli government is questioned by the Palestinians. As much as 61% oppose going back to the negotiations as a result of the Israeli Prime Minister’s declaration of a 10-months freeze on new settlement building.

Furthermore, 75% of the respondents believe that the Israeli government is not serious about implementing the declared freeze on settlement building, while 81% believe that Israel is not making any serious efforts to stop settlement building. Overall, 76% oppose the U.S. call to go back to the negotiations without a freeze on settlement building.

Yet, these views did not prevent the majority of Palestinians to believe that negotiations continue to be the best approach; 54% of the respondents agree that negotiations are still the best method to end the occupation regardless of the current deadlock. About 66% believe that negotiations as they were undertaken in the past will be ineffective. In contrast, about 59% believe that negotiations under new and more balanced terms such as an international conference will be effective. Generally, negotiations and non-violent approaches are believed to be more effective by a majority of Palestinians.

The majority of Palestinians oppose any scenario that involves the dismantlement of the PA; 72%% oppose the dismantlement of the PA to allow for any international takeover of responsibility in the West Bank and Gaza until a state is established.

A majority of 52% support the idea that Hamas should concede its authority in Gaza to the PA. About 64% evaluate the performance of the Fayyad government positively. About 38& would prefer to live under the Fayyad government.

It is interesting to find out that a high percentage of Gaza respondents would rather live under a Fayyad government (41%).

These evaluations are related to an overall assessment of various aspects on living conditions.

·            A higher percentage of Gazans (49%) feel that the freedom of press and speech in their region is weak compared with 37% in the West Bank.

·            A higher percentage of Gazans (56%) feel that the there is abuse of human rights compared with 50% in the West Bank.

·            A higher percentage of Gazans (49%) feel that the respect for personal freedoms in their region is weak compared with 41% in the West Bank.

·            A higher percentage of Gazans (32%) feel that corruption among officials in their region is widespread compared with 26% in the West Bank.

·            A higher percentage of Gazans (53%) feel that the equality in service delivery in their region is weak compared with 46% in the West Bank.

It is also interesting to find that a vast majority of Palestinians would like to see a continuation of PA support to Gaza. As much as 79% of the respondents believe that the Fayyad government should continue to support salaries and other social services in Gaza even if Gaza continues to be under the control of Hamas.

A majority believes that both factions (Hamas and Fateh) are to blame for delaying the elections and for stalling the reconciliation agreement. However, more respondents feel that Hamas is more to blame than Fateh. About 58% say that Fateh and Hamas are blamed equally for the delay in carrying out the elections. About 26% blame Hamas only and 10% blame Fateh only. As to the delay in signing the reconciliation agreement proposed by Egypt, 52% blame both factions. About 30% blame only Hamas and 12% blame only Fateh.

While majority supports a continuation of an Abbas presidency, a majority oppose an appointment of Duwaik

Indicators show that elections will not take place in their due date (January 24, 2010). Under this scenario a constitutional vacuum will take place.

A whole 51% opposed Aziz Duwiak announcement that he is ready to step in as a president if President Abbas steps down. Still, 60% believe that the election will not take place on its due date, while only 22% still believe that it would.

If Abbas and Marwan Barghouti decided not run for a presidential election, the space will be open for a number of potential leaders. This data, however, must be viewed carefully as other candidates might also become popular if they decided to run or if their factions declare their support for them. From among a list of 10 candidates from Fateh, Hamas and independents Haniyeh, Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouthi come on top (with about 14% each). They are followed by Mohamad Dahlan (10%). This scenario will be different if one candidate runs on behalf of the PLO and its allies and one candidate from the Islamic movement (Hamas).

The results of the election for the PLC will depend on how conditions evolve by the time of the elections. Today, however, AWRAD could make the following predictions.

·            If only Fateh and Hamas ran, Fateh would receive 68% and Hamas 32% of the vote.

·            If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive 54%, Hamas 29%, and a list of independents led by Fayyad 17%.

·            If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive 53%, Hamas (28%) and a list of independents led by Mustafa Barghouthi (19%).

·            If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive (52%), Hamas 28%, and a list of independents led by Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouti 20%.

·            In an open election with all potential lists, Fateh receives 55%, Hamas 27%, and 18% will go to the rest of the lists.