RAMALLAH, December 27, 2016 (WAFA) – Preliminary estimates by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) indicated an increase in GDP in Palestine by 3.9% during 2016 compared with 2015, while GDP per capita increased by 1.0% during 2016 compared with 2015.
PCBS said the largest contributor to the increase in GDP in 2016 was the activity of construction, which rose by 4.7% and the total number of employees increased by 12.3%. The second contributor was the industry activity with a gross value added rising by 4.2% compared to 2015. The total number of employees in the industry activity also increased by 5.3%.
Preliminary estimates of Palestinian labor market indicators
Preliminary estimates indicated an increase in the number of employed persons in the Palestinian labor market by 3.0% in 2016 compared to 2015. The increase was attributed to the high increase in the number of workers in construction, industry and services activities. Preliminary estimates also showed that 12.1% of employed individuals worked in Israel, compared to 11.5% in 2015.
Unemployment rate increased to 27.2% in 2016 compared with 26.2% in 2015.
Increase in exports and imports of goods and services during 2016
Preliminary estimates of Palestinian foreign trade movements, represented in exports and imports, indicated that the value of exports increase by 6.3% compared to 2015 and the value of imports increased by 7.3% compared to 2015.
Prices
Preliminary estimates showed that the average of overall consumer prices index in Palestine recorded a stability during 2016 compared with 2015.
Economic Forecasts for 2017
Ola Awad, President of PCBS, has reviewed, the performance of the Palestinian economy during 2016, as well as the economic forecasts for the year 2017.
These forecasts were developed based on various scenarios for Palestine, which do not differentiate the West Bank from Gaza Strip despite the gap between them, and in consultation with Advisory committee for economic statistics consists of local economists and academics, in addition to the Ministry of Finance and the Palestinian Monetary Authority.
Each scenario took into consideration internal political and economic circumstances for 2017, the blockade imposed upon Gaza Strip, foreign aid, Israeli measures in Palestine, the number of Palestinian workers in Israel and economic and social variables.
Baseline Scenario
This scenario is based on the assumption that the economic and political situation in Palestine will remain the same as it was during 2016. It assumes that donor countries will continue to provide financial support for the budget of the State of Palestine (central government). It assumes the continuation of transfer clearance revenues from Israel and improved tax collection efficiency, an increase of government transfers, increased the value of the credit facilities. It assumes that obstacles placed by Israel on the movement of people and goods inside Palestine, between regions, or with neighboring countries, will be the same as in 2016, in addition to natural population growth in Palestine.
Expectations of Base Scenario
Real Sector:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 3.6% in 2017; the value of GDP per capita is also expected to increase by 0.6%, and the value of gross consumption (private and public) is expected to increase by 3.3%. The value of total investment is expected to increase by 8.0%.
Work and Workers: An increase of 5.2% in the number of employees is anticipated and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 27.2% in 2017.
Fiscal Sector:
A 9.5% increase in the value of government revenues is anticipated as a result of improvements in tax collection, an increase in the value of government expenses by 2.6%, and a decrease of 16.6% of the public budget deficit (central government).
External Sector:
An increase of 4.6% is anticipated in the net current account deficit value of Palestine and an increase of 4.9% in the trade balance deficit value. This is attributed to the expected rise in the value of Palestinian imports.
M.N./M.K.
